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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest shock.

But the latest race is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers ascending together. Under an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a wild and fun season, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still